Butler-Michigan State Preview – Two Fives in the Final Four

Online betting isn’t as simple as a straight line, at least not when the Final Four is concerned. In only three of the past 10 Final Fours have all three games been won by the higher-seeded team. This year, Michigan State enters college basketball’s showcase event with a number of weaknesses, while a healthier Butler team will be playing not only in its home state, but its home city. This scenario is tailor-made for a Butler victory, but will the hometown Bulldogs survive this national semifinal?

What: NCAA Basketball Betting

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN

The Story

If a sportsbook indicated that one of these teams was likely to win by anything more than five points, a federal investigation would be necessary. If one outcome is particularly likely in the Final Four’s first game, it’s that Butler and Michigan State will play a very close contest over the course of 40 minutes (and maybe overtime).

The Bulldogs and Spartans own a blue-collar identity and have maintained a lasting commitment to the no-glory aspects of basketball. Coach Brad Stevens demands lock-down defense for a Butler team making its first appearance in the Final Four, while Michigan State coach Tom Izzo insists on effort and toughness from his Spartans, who are making their sixth Final Four trip in the past 12 seasons.

Offensive Edge

Sports betting experts would certainly say that Michigan State has a better offense than Butler does. MSU sharpshooter Durrell Summers has once again elevated his game in March. The potent perimeter performer scored 21 points on just 10 shots in Sunday’s 70-69 win over Tennessee. Summers – along with teammates Raymar Morgan and Delvon Roe – can play above the rim and dunk the ball in traffic. Only Butler swingman Gordon Hayward can do the same for the Bulldogs.

Defensive Edge

Michigan State’s defense is terrific, but Butler’s defense is unquestionably better. The Bulldogs took on the top two seeds in the West Region over the past weekend, and throttled both of them thanks to suffocating on-ball pressure that clogged passing lanes and restricted good ball movement. Against top-seeded Syracuse and No. 2 Kansas State, Butler held a pair of high-octane offenses to fewer than 60 points.

Injuries

Michigan State point guard Kalin Lucas is out (torn Achilles). Michigan State forward Delvon Roe (torn meniscus) will play. Michian State shooting guard Chris Allen (strained arch in his foot) will play.

Prediction

Expect this game to come down to the final 30 seconds. Why pick Michigan State? Tom Izzo very rarely loses as a favorite at the Final Four. In his previous five semifinals, Izzo has a 2-3 record. Only once – in 2001 against Arizona – did Izzo’s MSU team fail to uphold its status as a semifinal favorite. (MSU was a semifinal underdog in 1999, 2005 and 2009; it was a favorite when it defeated Wisconsin in 2000.)