Michigan State (MSU) vs. North Carolina (UNC) Pick Against the Spread

#9 MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS @ #11 NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEALS -2

Tonight is arguably the best college basketball game of the season thus far.  As you are well aware, Michigan State (5-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) and North Carolina (6-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) faced each other in last season’s National Championship and UNC dominated them 89-72. However, UNC has lost Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, and Bobby Frasor. Those losses are tremendous, so you’re getting a very different UNC team. The team leaders for UNC this season are Deon Thompson, Ed Davis, and Marcus Ginyard, who are all having a great season so far. The biggest loss for MSU is Garron Suton, so MSU lacks a physical center to challenge Thompson and Davis in the paint. MSU still obviously has one of the most recognizable NCAA stars, guard Kalin Lucas, who averages 17.2 PPG.

Each team has 1 loss. Michigan State lost to Florida 77-74, which was caused by a whopping 23 turnovers. UNC’s sole loss was to a 7-0 Syracuse team by the score of 87-71. UNC was able to beat Ohio State at Madison Square Garden, a high caliber team by the score of 77-73.

I like North Carolina -2 in this one. If this game was played on a neutral court, I might consider taking MSU and although a lot of people think MSU is the “sexier” team to take, mainly because of Lucas, I expect UNC’s forwards to dominate this matchup, while their guards do just fine against Lucas. I think the loss of Sutton is the difference in this game, as MSU lacks a true center on defense to stop Deon Thompson and Ed Davis. I’m expecting a UNC win by 4-8 points. Tom Izzo is also 0-4 while playing in North Carolina.

Prediction: North Carolina 71 – Michigan State 66

Tonight’s Free Pick: NORTH CAROLINA -2 over Michigan State (Confidence: 2.5/5)